شناسایی و تحلیل عوامل مؤثر در مناسبات هیدروپلیتیک ایران و افغانستان در حوضه آبریز هریرود

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار جغرافیای سیاسی دانشگاه خوارزمی

2 دانشیار جغرافیای سیاسی دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

3 دکترای جغرافیای سیاسی دانشگاه خوارزمی

چکیده

آب ماده‌ای ضروری برای بقای جوامع است و عبور آن از مرزهای بین‌المللی سبب‌شده تا به عنوان یک عامل مهم در شکل‌دادن به منازعه یا همکاری میان کشورها نقش‌آفرینی کند. یکی از اقدامات بنیادی در تجزیه و تحلیل مناسبات هیدروپلیتیک در سیستم رود‌های فرامرزی، شناخت متغیرهایی است که در اهمیت آب‌های فرامرزی برای کشورها نقش دارند. آب هریرود از افغانستان وارد ایران می‌شود و قرارگرفتن حوضه‌ی آبریز آن در نوار خشک و نیمه‌خشک جهانی سبب وابستگی آن‌ها به آب هریرود برای تأمین نیاز آبی‌شان شده‌است. برنامه‌های توسعه‌ای افغانستان سبب کاهش ورود آب هریرود به ایران شده به گونه‌ای که می‌تواند زمینه‌ساز چالش در امنیت‌آبی شمال‌خاوری ایران گردد.  از‌این‌روی سوال پژوهش این است که متغیرها و شاخص‌های تاثیرگذار در اهمیت راهبردی هریرود برای ایران و افغانستان کدام است؟ برای این منظور ۸۶ شاخص شناسایی و داده‌ها با استفاده از روش دلفی و روش تحلیل‌ساختاری با نرم‌افزار میک‌مک تحلیل شده‌است. نتایج حاکی از آن است که شاخص‌های اهمیت هریرود برای آب‌آشامیدنی، امنیت‌غذایی، امنیت منابع‌آبی برای ایران و شاخص‌های اهمیت هریرود برای امنیت‌ملی، امنیت منابع‌آبی و انجام برنامه‌های توسعه‌ی اقتصادی برای افغانستان جزو شاخص‌های راهبردی محسوب می‌شوند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Identifying and analyzing the factors affecting the hydropolitical relations of Iran and Afghanistan in the Harirud Basin

نویسندگان [English]

  • Afshin Motaghi 1
  • morad kavianirad 1
  • seyed hadi zarghani 2
  • Hasan Sadrania 3
1 Associate Professor of Political Geography, Kharazmi University
2 Associate Professor of Geography at Ferdowsi University
3 Ph.D. in Political Geography, Kharazmi University
چکیده [English]

1-       Introduction
Water is a vital and unique resource that no successor is foreseen for it. At the beginning of the new millenary, water scarcity, patterns of consumption, natural resource depletion, desertification, pollution, and the lack of appropriate infrastructure lead people to a global water crisis. Hydropolitics in the geopolitical literature deals with the location of water resources in the power relations of political-spatial units on a sub-national, national and transnational scale. One of the problems in analyzing hydropolitical relations in the system of international rivers is that the same factors, such as water scarcity and economic development, can create a range of conflict or cooperation. Hence, the variables and indicators affecting the importance of water resources for each coastal country are different, and even an identical variable in each coastal country plays a different role in relation to other variables. Therefore, the main aim of the study is to identify the variables and indicators that are effective in the strategic importance of Harirud for Iran and Afghanistan that can affect the hydropolitical relations of the two countries. In Southwest Asia, political realism and a nationalistic look at common water resources from the upstream countries are the main source of water crisis in the region. The Harirud Basin is one of the most common watersheds between Iran and Afghanistan in this region and the eastern and northeast Iran is dependent on the transboundary water resources of the basin to develop it. After the operation of Afghanistan from the Salma Dam, the amount of water entering the Friendship Dam has been reduced to 3 million cubic meters, while the amount of water entering it has already been about 300 million cubic meters. The formation of a water crisis in the east and northeast of Iran can have a negative impact on the relations between Iran and Afghanistan, and will provide an area for the integration of hydropolitical and geopolitical issues to the benefit of each of the countries with their geographical advantages in these areas. Accordingly, the research question is that what are the variables and indices affecting the strategic importance of Harirud for Iran and Afghanistan? Research is based on the assumption that food security, employment, supply of drinking water and electricity generation to Afghanistan, and the supply of drinking water and agriculture to Iran are among the most important variables. The research is of great importance because it can provide an appropriate perspective on the progress of Iran in the watershed of Harirud for the related executive bodies in the field of water and foreign policy.
 
2-      Research methodology
In this research, a combination of resource review, Delphi and cross-matrix analysis using Micmac software has been used. The statistical population of the research has been selected according to the type of work experience and work related to the topic among the faculty members and international and foreign researchers who have done research work in relation to the subject matter of the research, Iran and Afghanistan, and especially the water resources of the two countries. According to the characteristics of the statistical society, targeted sampling has been done. In this research, 35 experts were selected, among whom 25 were involved in completing the Delphi questionnaires, and 10 participants participated in completing the interaction analysis matrix questionnaire, of which 8 of the replies were used to complete the matrix.
 
3-      Discussion
The variables and indices obtained from library studies were arranged in the form of a questionnaire and the Delphi method was sent to the statistical community. After scoring the indexes according to the average expert opinion, 15 indicators for the importance of Harirud water for Iran and 16 indicators were also selected for the importance of Harirud province water for Afghanistan. The results of the Delphi method show that geopolitical- geographical, technical-economical, and political- social variables have the highest impact, respectively, in the strategic importance of Harirud for Iran's national security and economic, geopolitical and social political variables, respectively have a strategic importance for Afghanistan. After identifying the indices, with the aim of examining their interaction effects on each other and identifying the key variables, structural analysis method has been used using the Micmac software. Analytical results show that geopolitical geographic variables have the most impact and have the most impact on the system. The importance of Harirud to drinking water and the importance of Harirud for food security from the technical economic variables and the importance of Harirud for the safety of water resources and the importance of Harirud to Iran's national security of the geopolitical variable and the indicator of Afghanistan's position in Iran's foreign policy of the social political variable Strategic Indicators And the key to Harirud's importance is for Iran. For Afghanistan, the Harirud's Significance Indexes for National Security, Harirud's Importance for Conservation of Water Resources, Iran's Geopolitical Situation for Access to Free Waters from Geopolitical Variables, Indicators of Harirud's Importance for the Implementation of the Afghan Economic, Social, and Environmental Development Plan, the Importance of Harirud for Food security and economic interdependence of the two countries from the technical-economic variables and Afghanistan's place in the goals of foreign policy Iran is one of the key political and strategic indicators of the strategic importance of Harirud .
 
4-      Conclusion
The analytical results of the study to identify the variables and indicators that affect the strategic importance of Harirud for Iran and Afghanistan indicate that Herring has a strategic role for drinking water, food security and security of Iranian water resources and for national security, water security and economic development programs in Afghanistan. The analysis of opportunities and risks for Iran in relation to Afghanistan in the Harirud watershed basin is based on the effects of strategic variables on target variables in two ways:
Risks: Due to the weakness of Afghanistan's political position in Iran's foreign policy and the structural weakness of the country's national strength indicators against Iran, Afghanistan will try to deal with the issue of water in terms of power with Iran. In this case, Iran's distrust in Afghanistan will increase, and because of the low economic interdependence of the two countries, Iran will try to react in the economic, geopolitical and political areas against the Afghan government in order to satisfy the Afghans. To pay attention to the issue of water to Iran's right to overwhelm its rivers. The relationship between Iran and Afghanistan is expected to be further tightened on this foundation.
Opportunities: The geomorphology of the Harirud watershed as an effective environmental index will cause both Iran and Afghanistan to face a shortage of water resources in this area. In this case, Iran can improve its political position in Afghanistan's foreign policy by managing its strategic indicators and using its geopolitical position for Afghanistan to access the water through the implementation of the Chabahar Agreement between Iran, India and Afghanistan, and by investing in the agricultural sector Afghanistan and its affiliated food industry will be able to use the water saving barrier to meet the demand for drinking water from the Mashhad Metropolis, in addition to providing the food needed by reducing water consumption in the agricultural sector. This will promote the economic indicators of the two countries and solve some of the internal problems of Afghanistan in issues related to human security. In such a space, the performance of international institutions as a regulatory indicator of research for investment in the water sector will improve and can act as a key actor in the system. Not only will water scarcity lead to tension between the two countries' hydropolitic relations, but the two countries will come to a common understanding that Afghanistan's complementary hydropolitics of Iran and Iran are complementary to the geopolitics of Afghanistan, and this complementary aspect can be the source of interaction between the two countries Provide.