امکان‌سنجی همگرایی ایران - پاکستان

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار جغرافیای سیاسی دانشگاه شهید بهشتی

2 دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیای سیاسی دانشگاه فردوسی

چکیده

تا 1947 میلادی، ایران و هند، دو کشور همسایه بودند که به واسطه تقسیم استعماری شبه قاره، کشور حائل پاکستان با انبوهی از مشکلات جایگزین هند شد. پس از این تاریخ، مسائل داخلی و خارجی هند و پاکستان به شدت به‌ یکدیگر گره خورد. امروزه شناخت سیاست خارجی پاکستان بدون درک عمیق محیط سیاسی- امنیتی پیچیده آسیای جنوبی بخصوص در تطبیق با هند و افغانستان، امکان‌پذیر نیست. هدف این مقاله امکان‌سنجی و بررسی چالش‌های پیشروی همگرایی ایران با پاکستان در مقایسه و تطبیق با هند است. یافته‌های پژهشی نشان می‌دهد با وجود اینکه ایران و پاکستان دارای زمینه همگرایی‌اند، این مهم تا حالا به صورت واقعی محقق نشده است. برعکس در انطباق با پاکستان؛ هند، در اغلب زمینه‌هایی که روابط پاکستان با ایران واگرا است، روابط همگرا و روبه رشدی با ایران دارد. قابل یادآوری است که هدف نویسندگان مقاله، ارائه پیشنهادی مبنی بر جایگزینی و ترجیح هند بر پاکستان و برعکس آن، در مناسبات و روابط خارجی ایران نیست؛ حال آنکه پاکستان همسایه مطمئن و قابل احترام ایران است و هند به واسطه پتانسیل‌های فراوان و سطح گسترده روابط- در سیاست خارجی ایران کشوری است راهبردی. روش تحقیق در این پژوهش توصیفی- تحلیلی و بر مبنای روش کیفی است. گردآوری داده‌ها، با استفاده از منابع و ابزار کتابخانه‌ای است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Iran-Pakistan convergence feasibility (Emphasizing India's Rival Case)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hamidreza Mohammadi 1
  • ebrahim ahmadi 2
1 Associate Professor of Political Geography, Shahid Beheshti University
2 rPhD student of political geography of Ferdowsi University
چکیده [English]

1-      Introduction
 
By 1947, Iran and India were two neighbor countries that replaced India with the many problems due to the division of the Mediterranean pseudonym. After birth, the domestic and foreign issues of India and Pakistan are closely interconnected for this reason, recognizing Pakistani foreign policy is not possible without a deep understanding of the complex South-South political-security environment, especially in adapting to India and Afghanistan. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the challenges facing Iran-Pakistan convergence with India. The findings of the survey show that, although Iran and Pakistan have a convergence field, this has not been realized to the present. Conversely,   India's relations with Iran are divergent which can arise in many areas. It is worth noting that the authors' goal is not to suggest that India should be replaced and preferred by Pakistan, and vice versa, in Iran's foreign relations ships. On the one hand, Iran, due to its proximity to Pakistan, does not have long borders with this country, and long-standing cultural and historical pockets of anti-Pakistan, India, and US do not want Pakistan to be a reliable friend, with India,  at the  some point. From regional and global issues, such as Pakistan's role in Afghanistan's security, which support the Taliban and other terrorist groups?  Apart from the security relations (Afghanistan, the fight against terrorism, etc.), Iran-India relations in the economic fields (Chabahar port, energy exports, transport development, etc.) are also wider than relations with Pakistan. It seems that Iran, on the basis of the balance of interests, is struggling to balance its relations with both India and Pakistan, but in general, turning to the abovementioned and, consequently , the superiority of India (the regional and global geopolitical position of the country, having Economic, technological, political, etc. leverage, ) versus Pakistan; Iran's relations with India are deepe and wide .
In summary, the research goal is to answer three main questions;
  - In brief, Can the relations between Iran and Pakistan be converging?
In terms of feasibility, what challenges do Iran-Pakistan relations face with?
- Can India, in principle, be considered as a rival or alternative to Pakistan's foreign policy?
 
2-      Research and Methodology
 
This research is a descriptive-analytic method which based on qualitative method.  Data collection of the research including resources, including books, valid articles, speeches of experts
 
3-      Discussion
 
The analysis of Iran-Pakistan political-security relations seem difficult, regardless of the political arrangement of South Asia and the it's ruling. The political conditions of South Asia are contradictory to the order and disorder that its main actors are the triangle of India, Pakistan and Afghanistan. It is not possible to investigate Iran's relations with any other country such as Pakistan, regarding their historical conflicts and traditional rivalries.  Meanwhile, Afghanistan is a control variable between the three countries such as Iran, India and Pakistan. In the sense of Afghanistan's political the interests of Iran and India are in complete conflict with Pakistan. Meanwhile, Pakistan sees Afghanistan as its strategic sanctuary, which is pernicious and sensitive to the influence of any country, especially if it is India. While Afghanistan's stance towards India has caused a mess in the South Asian political order Nevertheless, Iran and India are among the biggest supporters of security in Afghanistan. The next important variable is the feasibility of Pakistan's economic convergence with Iran in comparison and alignment with India. Evidence suggests that Iran-Pakistan economic relations are of little use. However, Iran-India economic relations are widespread in many areas. In the energy debate, there was a point of reference and alignment of the three peace pipelines, which was also stagnant by Pakistan, while India, Oman and Iran are agreeing on the largest submarine pipeline in the world with a length of 1,400 km. India's large-scale investment in Chabahar's development will also have largely result in the alignment of the political, economic and security interests of Iran and India. In competition with  Chabahar port, Pakistsn have developed  a Gwadar port by  the help of China (the regional and global rival of India). Entry into Afghanistan (with political objectives) Entry into Central Asia (for security-economic purposes) and entry into the Caspian states (with strategic objectives) are the benefits of Chabahar for India, which is in line with Iran.
 
4-      Conclusion
 
If we want to summarize the answers to the questions raised in the research, Iran and Pakistan have a potential for convergence in a variety of political, cultural, economic and security fields. Membership in the ECO Economic Organization, of Islamic Cooperation in the Shanghai Economic, Security and Political Organization are part of the common assets of the two countries in order to achieve convergence. Of course, until full convergence and a real regionalization between Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan and India remain a long way, but not far-reaching. As mentioned before Pakistan is a heritage of a colonial country that has been challenging its neighbors since its birth, roughly seven decades from its life. With all of this, the boundaries of Iran and Pakistan have always been the frontier of friendship. In a brief comparison, India is currently ranked as one of Iran's most important economic partners (fifth partner) and one of Iran's largest energy customers. India is also now the main option for developing Bandar Chabahar (valued at $ 500 million). The entry of India to Iran has many positive consequences (political, security, economic, etc.) for both Iran and India; of course but this issue should not be caused particular sensitivities for Pakistan from Iran.  As mentioned previously India and Pakistan culturally and civilizational has a lot of common with Iran and are among the most important and trusted countries in Iran's foreign policy; hence, one is preferred to one another far from the logic of governance.
 
 
 
 
 
 

1.     
Ahmadi, Ebrahim, Geopolitical analysis, convergence and Divergence of Regional, Case Study: Iran and Pakistan, A Thesis Presented for the Degree of M.A, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, 2015.
Ameriyan, Cirus & Saida Eskandari, Moodi Government and Rohhani How can the expansion of their relations addressing, published by: The Institute for Iranian Studies and Eurasia, December 22, 2013.
Ahmadi Fesharaki, Hassan Ali,  Foreign Policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran and India: The Field of interaction and The Confrontation, World StudiesQuarterly, No. 2, Pp. 149-182, 2011.
Baqal,‌ Huma, Extremism and Fundamentalism: Linkages to Terrorism Pakistan’s Perspective, International Journal of Humanities and Social Science Vol. 1 No. 6, June,.242-248, 2012.
Burke S.M & Lawrence Ziring, Pakistan's Foreign Policy: An Historical Analysis, Iraj Vafaie Trans, Tehran, Kavir Publishing, 1998.
D’Souza, S.‌M‌, Afghanistan in South Asia: Regional Cooperation or Competition?,  South Asian Survey,Vol. 16, No.1, 23-42, 2009.
Ddiotte,  james & Robert Pfaltzgraff, Contradictory Theories in International Relations, Alireza Tayeb and Vahid Bazargi Trans, 4th Edition, Tehran, Gomes publishing, 2005.
Etaat, javad & Ebrahim, Ahmadi, Analysis of the relations geopolitical Pakistan and neighbors: The sources of tension and the threat, Political and International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 7, No. 24, Pp. 51-75, 2015.
Fair, C. Christine‌, Under the Shrinking U.S. Security Umbrella: India’s End Game in Afghanistan, THE Washington Quarterly, spring, 2011,  available at: http://www.tw q.com/11 spring/docs/ 11spring
Farzin Nia, Ziba, India-China Relations; Cooperation and Competition, Studies of Central Asia and the Caucasus Quarterly,Vol. 15, No. 65, Pp. 15-46, 2009.
                      , Pakistan's foreign policy, Tehran, Political and International Studies, 2004.
Fuller, Graham, The Center of the Universe the Geopolitics of Iran,  Abass Mokhber Trans,  Tehran, Markaz publishing, 1996.
Frankl, Joseph, Contemporary theory of international relations, Vahid Bzorgi Trans, Tehran, Published Etlaat, 1997.
Ghavam , Abdul Ali, International relations; theories and Approaches, 9th Edition, Tehran, Samt publishing, 2011.
Gautam, Mukhopadhaya , Is a Regional Strategy Viable In Afghanistan, ,Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2010.
 Hafeznia, MohammadReza, the Principles and Concepts of Geopolitics, Papoli Publications, Mashhad, 2006.
17.  Hass, B. Ernest, Beyond the Nation-State, California: Stanford University Press, 1964.
Iran's Foreign Trade Up 5% , Financial tribune,  Mar-Aug 2017,  in: https:// financialtribune.com/articles/.../iran-s-foreign-up-5-mar-aug
Jansir, Ahmad, Taghizadeh Ansari, Mohammad  and Sajjad Bahrami Moghadam, Evolution of India Foreign Policy to Economic Pragmatism towards the GCC, journal of Subcontinent Researches, Vol. 8, No. 28, Pp. 25-50, 2016.
 Jamal, Arif , A Guide to Militant Groups in Kashmir, Terrorism Monitor, Vol. 4, No. 5, 2010
Koolaee, Elahe,  Mandana tishehyar,  A theoretical review of the India's Energy Security Approach in Center Asia,  External relations Quarterly,Vol. 3, No. 2, Pp. 161-184, 2011.
Kazemi, Ali Asghar, International Relations in Theory and Practice,Tehran, Gomes publishing, 1994.
Keohane, R, After hegemony: Cooperation and discord in the World political economy Princeton, Princeton University Press, N.J, 1984
Lieber, Robert, J, Theory and World Politics, Massachusett: Winthrop Publishers, 1972.
Mohamadi, HamMid Reza & Ebrahim Ahmadi, Explanatory, geopolitical model of Iran and Pakistan relations, Human Geography Researchers Quarterly,Vol. 49, No. 2, Pp. 307-323, 2017.
                        , Two-level analysis of the divergence geopolitical Iran and Pakistan (Scenario of relations future Explained; an array of solutions based on the convergence), Strategic Policy Research Quarterly,Vol. 5, No. 19, Pp. 129-156, 2016.
                         , Divergence between Iran and Pakistan, with an Emphasis on Ethnic and Religious Extremism, Political studies of the Islamic world Quarterly,Vol. 4, No. 2, Pp. 143-169, 2015.
                           , Iran and Pakistan Geopolitics (The regional convergence and divergence fields), TehranEentekhab Publication,2015.
Maleki, Abass, Lessons of the New Relations of India and the United States Can be Learned. StrategyQuarterly,Vol. 23, No. 70, Pp. 329-338, 2014.
Mushirzadeh, Homira, The evolution of the theory of international relations, Tehran, Samt publishing, 2011.
Maghsodi, Mojtaba & Shghayegh Heydari, Transformation of the concept of terrorism, case study; Terrorism in India, Economic-political Quarterly, No. 259-260, 2009.
Nader & et al., Iran’s Influence in Afghanistan Implications for the U.S. Drawdown, RAND Corporation institute, 2014.
Panda, Ankit ,  First Indian Wheat Shipment Leaves for Afghanistan Via Iran's Strategic Chabahar Port, the Diplomat, 2017, in: https://thediplomat  .co /201 /.../first-indian-wheat-shipment-leaves-for-afghanistan-vi
Rashydi,  Ahmad,  safyollah shahghale,  Intellectual Roots of Pakistani Taliban's Opposition against Shia, Political studies of the Islamic world Quarterly, Vol. 1, No. 2, Pp. 93-112, 2012.
Shahin,  Mahdi, An analytic review of Iran and India's foreign policy before Iran’s nuclear deal in 2014, journal of Subcontinent Researches, Vol. 8, No. 27, Pp. 63-82, 2016.
 Rafi, Hossein, Mpact of Wahhabi Influence in Pakistan onto Relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran, International Relations Studies Quarterly, Vol. 8, No. 32, Pp. 177-211, 2015.
Shah, Zahir and  Ijaz Khalid ,  Pakistan-Iran Relations in the Changing Global Scenario Post, Journal of Applied Environmental and Biological Sciences, Vol.5, No.6,Pp.  206-212, 2015.
Sial, Safdar, An analysis of emerging Pakistan-Iranian ties, Norwegian Peace building Resource Centre, Pp.1-7, 2015.
Statistical Review of World Energy, BP, pp. 1-44, 2015, at moor: www.bp.com/en/.../energy.../statistical-review-of-world-energy.html (pdf)
Statistical Review of World Energy, 64th Edition, 2015, Available at: http://www.bp.com/statiscalreview=Bpstate, (Accessed on: 7/3/2016).
Shafiee, Nozar & Shahriyar Faraji-Nasiri, Political Security Equations in South Asia and their Effects on Iran`s National Security, Policy Studies Quarterly, Vol. 1, No. 1, PP. 9-31, 2014.
Shkho, Hossein, Study of Iran-Pakistan Economic Relations, published in Tehran's Cultural Institute Abrar  Moaser , 2012.
Shafiee, Nozar, Faraji Nasiri, Shahriyar  & Afshin Mottaghi, India's approach in Afghanistan after September 11, 2001(With the emphasis on Iran), Geopolitical Quarterly,Vol. 8, No. 2, PP. 125-152, 2012.
Sajjadpour, Kazem & Maeda Karimi Ghahroudi, Nuclear rivalry between India and Pakistan and its implications for the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Strategic Studies Quarterly, Vol. 14, No. 40, Pp. 227-258, 2011.
Teja, Jaskaran, India–Iran Relations in a New Context, American Foreign Policy Interests, Vol.37, No.2, Pp87-94, 2015.
Taylor, Paul, The Functionalist Approach to the Problem ofInternational Order, A Defense Political Studies, XVI, 3, 1968.
Undersea Iran-India gas pipeline can bring cheaper LNG to India , Live Mint ,  2017 sep 5, in: www.livemint.com › Industry › Energy
U.S. Energy Information Administration (E.I.A.), Country Analysis Brief: India, June 14, 2016, accessed August 2, 2016, https://www .eia.gov/beta /international/analysis_includes/ /India/india.pdf.
U.S. Energy Information Administration (E.I.A.), Under Sanctions, Iran’s Crude Oil Exports Have Nearly Halved in Three Years, June 24, 2015, (Accessed August 2, 2016).
Visi, Hadi, Investigating Pakistani-Iranian Geopolitical and Geo-Economical in Creating the North-South Corridor of Eurasia: Advantages and Threats, Geopolitics Quarterly,Vol. 13, No. 1, Pp. 101-124, 2017.
Verma,Nidhi, India's 2015 Iran Oil Imports Fall by a Quarter – Trade, Reuters, January 7, 2016,( Accessed August 2, 2016), http://in.reuters .com/ article/‌ india-iran-oil-import-idINKBN0UL0NV20160107
Verma,Nidhi, IndIia Oil Imports from Iran Jump Sharply in 2014, Reuters, January 16, 2016, (Accessed August 2, 2016), http://www.reuters .com/article/india-iran-oil-idUSL3N0UT4BG20150116.
Zarghani, seyed Hadi and Ebrahim Ahmadi, A Geopolitical Analysis of Iran-India Relations in the Framework of Interdependencies,Iranian Journal of International Policy, Vol. 4, No. 2, Pp. 55-85, 2016.
Zarghar, Afshin,  Convergence, and Divergence in Relations Between Iran and India,  Studies of Central Asia and the Caucasus Quarterly, No. 57, Pp. 131-182, 2007.
Zarghani, Seyed Hadi, Evaluation of the variables affecting the National power and The design of the national power measurement model, A Thesis Presented for the Degree of PhD of the Geopolitical Geography, A Thesis for the Degree of the Political Geography PhD, Tehran, Tarbiat Modares University, 2006.