Analysis of population aging trends in the countries of the Indian subcontinent

Abstract
The main goal of this research is to analyze the aging trends of the population in the countries of the Indian subcontinent. the present research method is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of nature. The primary data of this research was collected from the demographic data section of the World Bank, by year (from 1960 to 2022) and by countries in the Indian subcontinent (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka). EXCEL, GIS, and Stata software were used to analyze the collected data. data analysis in this research has been used quantitatively and through statistical methods such as the aging index formula, Kaplan-Meier survival estimates, Nelson-Aalen cumulative hazard estimates, and Cox proportional hazard model. The results of this research show that based on population indicators in the Indian subcontinent, the fertility rate, birth rate, and death rate have been on a downward trend and the life expectancy index has been on an upward trend; This shows that over time, the amount of the young population in this subcontinent will decrease and the amount of the elderly population will increase, so that Sri Lanka has now entered the structure of the elderly population in this subcontinent, and the countries of Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Myanmar and Nepal have entered the middle-aged population structure.
 
1. Introduction
Population is a phenomenon that has always been changing and this change has been constantly flowing in space and time. Population is considered as one of the basic elements in economic, social and cultural programs. Therefore, knowledge of the population situation and knowledge of its structure, dimensions and spatial extent are considered special issues in decision-making and planning (Mousavi et al., 2017: 66). In this regard, the aging of the population and the increase in the share of elderly people in the population of each country is considered one of the most important social developments of the 21st century, and its effects can be seen on almost all sectors of society (Safarkhanlou and Rezaei Ghahrodi, 2016: 8), therefore, focusing on the aging of the population And factors affecting the aging of the population are among the issues of concern to policy makers and planners in every country. In this regard, in countries with an aging population, the health of the elderly is one of the major issues that those countries are facing and they need careful planning and policies in this field. Without a plan for any country in terms of its demographic situation and structure, especially the elderly class, it will create many problems for the country in question. These problems will not only affect the lives of elderly people (mental, psychological, physical, social, etc.) (Farji Sobqbar et al., 2018: 266). Therefore, it is very important to examine the population structure of a country, and in this regard, the main research question under the title "Has the Indian subcontinent reached a middle-aged population structure?" It has been compiled to examine the situation of the Indian subcontinent's demographic structure, as well as the situation of the countries of this subcontinent. The aging of the population as an important demographic consequence, which occurs as a result of the increase in life expectancy and the decrease in mortality, fertility and fertility rate, creates a major impact on the long-term policy process of a country. In this regard, the main goal of this research is to analyze the trend of population aging. In the countries of the Indian subcontinent, by examining the time trend from 1960 to 2022, the amount of changes in the population structure of this subcontinent based on the indicators of total fertility rate, life expectancy, birth rate and death rate separately for 8 countries Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal evaluate Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
1.1. Research Methodology
The present research method is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of nature. The primary data of this research has been collected from the population data department of the World Bank, which is under the supervision of the United Nations, in this regard, the research data including population, area, percentage of population over 65 years old, percentage of population under 14 years old, total fertility rate, expected Life is the birth rate and death rate, compiled by year (from 1960 to 2022) and by country within the Indian subcontinent, which includes Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. EXCEL, GIS and Stata software were used to analyze the collected data. Analyzing the data in this research quantitatively and through statistical methods such as the aging index (Mousavi et al., 1400: 9) to evaluate the aging status of countries, the Kaplan-Meier estimator (to check the probability of surviving old age) and Nelsen Allen (for the probability of old age occurrence) and The Cox proportional hazard model (to examine the effect of total fertility rate and life expectancy on population aging) has been used.
2. Discussion
The results of this research show that based on the demographic indicators in the Indian subcontinent that were examined from 1960 to 2020, the fertility rate is on a downward trend, the life expectancy index is on an upward trend, the birth rate index is on a downward trend and finally the death rate index is also has had a downward trend; This issue indicates that over time, the amount of young population in this subcontinent will be accompanied by a downward trend, which can have a direct impact on the economic growth and the young workforce in this geographical area, and quickly the amount of young population in It will reduce economic activities.
By comparing the results of this research with previous researches, it can be acknowledged that the issue of aging is important both economically and in terms of the labor force (Zolkefly et al., 2023- Liang et al., 2023- Gillard, 2023) and the member countries of the subcontinent mostly have The force of the population is young people who migrate to work in elderly countries (Mousavi et al., 2016), in this regard, the accelerated aging process in Iran (Mousavi et al., 2014) and the change in its population structure (Meimandi et al., 2015) and on the other hand Considering the proximity of the subcontinent to Iran, there is a possibility that their young workforce will be pushed towards Iran, so in this sense, the planners in the country should adopt necessary policies.
3. Conclusion
According to the investigation of the developments in the field of demographic indicators in the Indian subcontinent, the current situation of this subcontinent is moving towards middle age and then towards old age in the coming years, so effective planning and policy making in order to meet the basic needs of this segment of the society It is necessary; Also, on the other hand, due to the aging of the workforce due to the increase in the aging of the population, it will reduce the amount of young labor and also cause the need for young labor to take care of the elderly population, which will require the adoption of population growth policies, especially in the first stage in It is in Sri Lanka and then in Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Myanmar and Nepal. It is important that the aging of the population will also create a need to provide health services, which should be considered by managers and urban planners, especially in Sri Lanka.
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