مولفه های تاثیرگذار بر روابط سیاسی طالبان با کشورهای همسایه هند و پاکستان

Given the ongoing developments in the region and the increasing role of the Taliban in political and security scenes, the present study focuses on examining the processes and influential factors on the dynamics of regional relations with this group. The Taliban, as an Afghan group, not only affects the security of Afghanistan but also has a broader impact on the security and stability of the region as a whole, observable in various domains. The Taliban's interventions and influence in Pakistan, particularly in border areas, have added security challenges to the region and affected the stability of this country. On the other hand, Afghanistan's neighbors such as India also have concerns about the impact of the Taliban on regional security, refugees, and the power balance in this area. This article analyzes multiple components that influence the relations of the Taliban with neighboring countries, especially India and Pakistan. Studying the influential components of these relations can contribute to a better understanding of the dynamics and dimensions of the Taliban's relations with their neighbors and serve as an analytical foundation for future studies in this area.

Introduction

In recent years, the South and Central Asian region has faced significant political, security and economic developments. Among the major events that have had a major impact on the region, we can mention the rise of the Taliban and gaining power in Afghanistan. The Taliban is an Islamist group known as the Islamic Movement of Afghanistan, which emerged in the 1990s and under the leadership of Mullah Muhammad Omar in 2000, was able to capture large parts of Afghanistan (Deb, 2021). In a study by Abbaszadeh, the fall of the Afghan government on August 24, 1400 and the re-emergence of the "Islamic Emirate" of the Taliban have been discussed. According to this research, the Taliban, as a social movement, succeeded in creating internal cohesion by emphasizing the element of nervousness based on ethnic (Pashtunism) and religious (Deobandi Salafism) characteristics. This cohesion was formed against the fragmented society and the crisis of authority and efficiency of the Afghan government (Abbaszadeh Marzbali, 2022). The Taliban emerged from a fragmented and chaotic society that had been institutionalized in the absence of a nation-state with a pattern of behavior and national orientation. In fact, discrete society generally refers to a type of society in which social and cultural relations are formed based on specific boundaries and separations. This type of society usually includes separate groups or social classes that act independently of each other and have their own identity. In these societies, cultural, economic, or ethnic differences can lead to social divisions. In the case of social disruption, we can refer to various theories that have investigated this issue. For example, the theories of "social rupture" show that this type of rupture may be caused by economic, political, or cultural factors that cause gaps in society.
In this situation, he took advantage of the weakness and corruption of government institutions, which had led to huge dissatisfaction in the society, and used it to mobilize his followers in the conditions of the society's passivity. Thus, the Taliban took power without facing serious resistance. In fact, the reason for the Taliban's success in regaining sovereignty in Afghanistan lies in the symmetry of a strong movement and a weak nation-state (2022, Abbaszadeh Marzbali). These developments have had significant effects on the Taliban's relations with neighboring countries, especially Pakistan and India. Geographically and politically, these two countries share common borders with Afghanistan, and as a result, their relations with the Taliban are of particular importance.
After the fall of the 9/11 attacks, the Taliban managed to recapture Afghanistan after their struggle and currently rule the country. The Doha agreement that the Taliban signed with the United States mentions a "new Islamic state", but the Taliban do not want to share power with others and claim that the Islamic Emirate is a model of a state with an Islamic framework and is trying to strengthen this system. Are This group has always emphasized its own interpretation of Islam and the implementation of Sharia law in an exclusive way. After regaining control of Afghanistan, the Taliban sought to establish a central government with full control over political and military affairs, minimizing negotiations with other political and ethnic groups. This approach is due to their belief in their religious and historical legitimacy as the rulers of Afghanistan, which makes them unnecessary for the need of coalition with other political forces. In addition, the Taliban are facing security and external challenges that have made them focus more on internal cohesion and maintaining power, rather than sharing power and partnering with opposition groups. Taliban, although not recognized as a government by any country or international organization, but as the holders of power in Afghanistan, they also follow foreign policy to some extent. After recapturing Afghanistan, the Taliban declared that they would rule the country "with Sharia", not "with democracy" (Anuj, 2024).
Therefore, by looking at the former regime of Afghanistan and the foreign policy of the Taliban, we can clearly see the influence of religion on politics. For example, the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, despite being a member of many international agreements, has explicitly declared that no agreement that conflicts with Islamic laws will be implemented in this country. In the same way, it can be said that the Taliban's foreign policy is also based on the principles of Islamic Sharia and any international interaction and agreement must be in accordance with this religious framework. The second principle of Taliban's foreign policy is to strengthen and stabilize the "Islamic Emirate". The Taliban, as in the 1990s, describe their government system as the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan and consider maintaining and strengthening the government as the main task of their foreign policy. In the Doha Agreement, which was signed on February 29, 2020, the "new Islamic State" is mentioned.
The aim of this article is to comprehensively examine the factors affecting the Taliban's relations with the two countries of Pakistan and India. This article tries to clarify the effect of security, racial and religious interests on the relations between them by analyzing the attitudes and policies of each of these countries towards the Taliban. Due to its neighborhood and historical and religious ties, Pakistan has a complex and variable relationship with the Taliban, in which security concerns and geopolitical issues play a central role. India also looks at the Taliban from the angle of competition with Pakistan and in order to protect its strategic interests in the region. By examining these factors, this article deals with a detailed analysis of their role and influence in the evolution of Taliban relations with Pakistan and India and seeks to clarify the hidden and obvious dynamics of these relations. The final goal of the article is to provide a deeper understanding of the challenges and opportunities in these relationships to lay the groundwork for future analysis in this area and better strategic decisions at the regional level. While the issue of Taliban's political relations with the neighboring countries of India and Pakistan has been investigated in several articles, the innovation of this article lies in providing a comparative and multidimensional analysis of the components influencing these relations. Unlike previous studies that have mainly focused on historical or security aspects, this article tries to provide a more comprehensive picture of the dynamics of these relations by integrating geopolitical, economic, cultural and security components. Also, in this research, an attempt has been made to examine the impact of developments after the return of the Taliban to power in 2021 on regional policies and how this group interacts with India and Pakistan from newer angles. Another innovative look of this article is in examining the role of non-governmental actors and regional economic networks, which have received less attention so far. In this framework, the role of transit projects such as railways and energy lines, which the Taliban use as tools of economic development and diplomacy, is specifically analyzed. This approach makes this article look at the problem from a holistic and interdisciplinary point of view, and in addition to security and historical issues, it also deals with emerging economic and diplomatic effects on Taliban relations with India and Pakistan.
1.1. Research methodology
The research method in this research is qualitative analysis. This method allows us to get to know the factors influencing the relations between Taliban and the neighboring countries of India and Pakistan by carefully examining and analyzing secondary documents and sources. The data used in this research were obtained through the review of previous studies, scientific articles, reports of international and government organizations, as well as the analysis of regional policies related to the Taliban. These sources are considered as secondary data for qualitative analysis. Also, the method of content analysis has been used to identify and extract the main themes related to the Taliban's relations with India and Pakistan.
 

Conclusion

This article focuses on the analysis of Taliban relations with India and Pakistan. The main goal of the article is to show the mutual effects between the Taliban and these two countries, which play an important role in determining the political and security directions of Afghanistan and the region. Taliban relations with these two countries have been formed based on a series of historical, security, economic and geopolitical factors. In the case of Pakistan, the Taliban's relationship with this country is ambiguous; Although Pakistan has used the Taliban as a tool to influence Afghanistan in different periods, the increasing power of the Taliban and the nationalism of the Pashtuns are considered a threat to the territorial integrity of Pakistan. On the other hand, Pakistan's central role as a transit route for goods and support for the Taliban in internal struggles has caused mutual dependence between the two sides. On the other hand, instability in Afghanistan is a threat to Pakistan's national security, which strengthens Pashtun separatist groups and extremism. Therefore, despite various conflicts, the relations between Taliban and Pakistan have remained vital due to security and economic needs. On the other hand, Taliban relations with India are more influenced by security and geopolitical considerations. India, as a country that has always supported governments opposed to the Taliban and seeks to maintain regional stability, has concerns about the presence of the Taliban in power. At the same time, India is trying to maintain its influence in the region by using soft diplomacy, development projects and economic ties with Afghanistan. For the Taliban, India, as a major economic and political power in the region, is an opportunity to diversify foreign relations and reduce dependence on Pakistan. As a result, Taliban policies towards these two neighboring countries are directly affected by economic, security and geopolitical factors, and these relations play an essential role in shaping the political and security future of the region. In general, we can conclude that although the relationship between Afghanistan and Pakistan seems fragile and tense, these two countries are historically, geographically, and economically dependent on each other. On the one hand, their long and common border, especially the Durand Line, has always been the source of border conflicts and ethno-nationalist differences, especially among the Pashtuns. However, on the other hand, the economic and security dependence between the two countries has created unbreakable ties. Pakistan plays a vital role in Afghanistan's economy as Afghanistan's most important access route to open waters and commercial markets. At the same time, Afghanistan is strategically important for Pakistan; Because stability or instability in Afghanistan has a direct impact on Pakistan's internal security, especially considering the presence of extremist and terrorist groups. This situation has caused that although the relations between the two countries are tense due to border and political issues, the necessity of security and economic cooperation has brought them to a kind of mutual dependence. Diplomatic issues and long-standing historical problems of Afghanistan, which are rooted in the past, are difficult to solve without a strong solution. The governments of the two countries cannot effectively intervene in these tensions, and for this reason, the people on both sides of the border are deprived of access to their civil and fundamental rights. In addition, the role of the Taliban as the executor of Pakistan's orders and instructions in Afghanistan and their lack of control in solving problems with the people has intensified this campaign. Also, regarding India's relationship with the Taliban, it can be said that India has always shaped its view of Afghanistan from Pakistan's point of view. When Pakistan's influence in Afghanistan has increased or its relations with Afghan governments have become closer, India has repeatedly withdrawn from the scene and its relations have faced tension and deterioration. India uses two types of diplomacy: one through humanitarian aid diplomacy and the other through regional diplomacy. This country provided huge aid to the people of Afghanistan in 2021, and in this regard, it also sent immediate aid to the earthquake victims in Paktika. These efforts show the impact of humanitarian aid diplomacy on increasing cooperation and bilateral relations with the Islamic Emirate. India also uses regional diplomacy to hold meetings and establish common positions with regional countries to play its role in interacting with the Islamic Emirate effectively.
 
 

Discussion

Taliban tries to pursue a neutral and balanced policy among global and regional actors. As seen in the last half century, Afghanistan has become a field of competition between global and regional powers. The Taliban's foreign minister emphasizes in every meeting and conference that their goal is to transform Afghanistan from a field of competition to a field of cooperation. As proof of their policy of neutrality and balance, the Taliban have announced their support for railway projects to connect Central Asia to South Asia and energy transmission projects. The main goal of the Taliban is to restore the diverse interests of different actors to the geopolitics of Afghanistan. However, during the second period of Taliban rule, the Pashtun identity of this group became more prominent, and this led to the increase in terrorist activities of Pashtun separatists in Pakistan, which posed a serious threat to Pakistan's national security and the country's integrity. In addition, Pashtun nationalist factions in the Taliban advocated the creation of a "greater Pashtunistan" and did not recognize the Durand border line, which led to border conflicts. In such an atmosphere, the fact that a large part of the Afghan people consider Pakistan responsible for internal problems has forced the Taliban to adopt an anti-Pakistani stance to gain internal legitimacy. Meanwhile, India has played an important role as a neighbor that always needs a relatively stable Afghanistan free from terrorist threats. Unlike other foreign players, India has no history of military intervention or direct political involvement in Afghanistan and has always focused on public relations and soft power. Due to the increasing geopolitical influence of New Delhi and its long-standing desire to access Central Asian markets through Afghanistan, having normal relations with India has a pragmatic appeal for the Taliban.
 

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